WASHINGTON (May 28, 2015) — Pending home sales rose in April for the fourth straight month and reached their highest level in nine years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Led by the Northeast and Midwest, all four major regions saw increases in April.
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 3.4 percent to 112.4 in April from a slight upward revision of 108.7 in March and is now 14.0 percent above April 2014 (98.6) — the largest annual increase since September 2012 (15.1 percent). The index has now increased year-over-year for eight consecutive months and is at its highest level since May 2006 (112.5).
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the steady gains in contract activity each month this year highlight the fact that buyer demand is strong. "Realtors® are saying foot traffic1 remains elevated this spring despite limited — and in some cases severe — inventory shortages in many metro areas," he said. "Homeowners looking to sell this spring appear to be in the driver's seat, as there are more buyers competing for a limited number of homes available for sale."
Adds Yun, "As a result, home prices are up and accelerating in many markets."
Following April's decline in existing-home sales, Yun expects a rebound heading into the summer, but the likelihood of meaningful gains will depend on a much-needed boost in inventory and evidence of moderating price growth now that interest rates have started to rise.
"The housing market can handle interest rates well above 4 percent as long as inventory improves to slow price growth and underwriting standards ease to normal levels so that qualified buyers — especially first-time buyers — are able to obtain a mortgage."
After falling four straight months, the PHSI in the Northeast bounced back solidly (10.1 percent) to 88.3 in April, and is now 9.4 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index increased 5.0 percent to 113.0 in April, and is 13.3 percent above April 2014.
Pending home sales in the South rose 2.3 percent to an index of 129.4 in April and are 14.8 percent above last April. The index in the West inched 0.1 percent in April to 103.8, and is 16.4 percent above a year ago.
Total existing-home sales in 2015 are forecast to be around 5.24 million, an increase of 6.1 percent from 2014. The national median existing-home price for all of this year is expected to increase around 6.7 percent. In 2014, existing-home sales declined 2.9 percent and prices rose 5.7 percent.
The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
1According to NAR's April Realtors® Confidence Index (RCI), the Buyer Traffic Index rose to 69 (66 in March 2015; 63 in April 2014). An index greater than 50 indicates that more respondents viewed traffic as "strong" than those who viewed traffic as "weak."
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.
NOTE: Existing-home Sales for May will be reported June 23, and the next Pending Home Sales Index will be June 29; release times are 10:00 a.m. EDT.
Read more: Pending Home Sales Climb in April to Highest Level since May 2006
WASHINGTON (May 26, 2015) — A stronger labor market and increasing household formation should keep commercial real estate demand on a gradual incline, according to the National Association of Realtors® quarterly commercial real estate forecast.
National office vacancy rates are forecast to slightly decrease 0.1 percent over the coming year as the demand for office space slowly improves. The vacancy rate for industrial space is expected to decline 0.3 percent and retail space 0.4 percent as manufacturing output increases and low gas prices and slight income gains boost consumer spending. An influx in new apartment construction is forecast to cause an uptick (0.1 percent) in the multifamily vacancy rate.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says commercial rents have risen at a moderate pace across the board for several quarters now and vacancy rates have been on a gradual decline. "The commercial real estate sector is on the path to recovery, but subpar economic growth, lack of financing available to small investors and the industry trend towards squeezing more employees into existing spaces will keep demand from meaningful acceleration," he said. "The exception is multifamily housing, which remains the best performer with vacancy rates under 4 percent in several markets in the Northeast and in California."
According to Yun, job growth and increasing household formation among young adults is supporting continued, robust demand for apartments. However, vacancies are expected to slightly rise over the next year as a higher-than-anticipated climb in multifamily completions is coming onto the market to meet that demand.
Looking ahead, Yun expects the economy to slowly pick up in upcoming quarters after severe winter weather, a widening trade gap and port disputes on the West Coast dragged on gross domestic product growth in the first quarter. "Similar to last year, economic growth will likely rebound as the year progresses, although perhaps not as robustly as what was seen in 2014. However, as long as jobs are being added at a respectable pace, gradual increases in demand for commercial spaces and leasing projects should continue."
NAR's latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook1 offers overall projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data for metro areas is provided by REIS Inc., a source of commercial real estate performance information.
According to NAR's recent 2015 Commercial Lending Trends Survey, Realtor® commercial members in the past year managed transactions averaging $1.6 million per deal — frequently located in secondary and tertiary markets — and focused on small businesses and entrepreneurs.
Office vacancy rates are forecast to slightly decline from 15.6 percent in the second quarter to 15.5 percent in the second quarter of 2016.
The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates in the second quarter are New York City, at 8.9 percent; Washington, D.C., at 9.0 percent; San Francisco, at 10.6 percent; and Little Rock, Ark., and Portland, Ore. at 11.6 percent.
Office rents are projected to increase 3.4 percent this year and 3.7 percent in 2016. Net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is likely to total 51.8 million square feet this year and 60.0 million in 2016.
Industrial vacancy rates are expected to fall from 8.4 percent in the second quarter to 8.1 percent in the second quarter of 2016.
The areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates currently are Orange County, Calif., with a vacancy rate of 3.4 percent; Los Angeles, 3.6 percent; Miami, at 5.3 percent; Seattle, at 5.4 percent; and Palm Beach, Fla., at 5.5 percent.
Annual industrial rents should rise at a clip of 3.1 percent both this year and in 2016. Net absorption of industrial space nationally is expected to total 108.8 million square feet in 2015 and 104.9 million square feet next year.
Vacancy rates in the retail market are expected to decline from 9.6 percent currently to 9.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016.
Currently, the markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco, at 3.0 percent; Orange County, Calif., and San Jose, Calif., at 4.6 percent; Fairfield County, Conn., at 4.7 percent; and Long Island, N.Y., 4.9 percent.
Average retail rents are forecast to rise 2.6 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2016. Net absorption of retail space is likely to total 15.8 million square feet this year and jump to 21.1 million in 2016.
The apartment rental market should see vacancy rates slightly increase from 4.3 percent currently to 4.4 percent in the second quarter of 2016. Vacancy rates below 5 percent are generally considered a landlord's market, with demand justifying higher rent.
Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are San Bernardino-Riverside, Calif., at 2.5 percent; Sacramento, Calif., 2.6 percent; New Haven, Conn., and Providence, R.I. at 2.7 percent; and Cleveland, Ohio, Oakland-East Bay, Calif., and San Diego at 2.8 percent.
With an influx of new supply coming onto the market, average apartment rents are projected to increase 3.6 percent this year and at a slower pace of 3.3 percent in 2016. Multifamily net absorption is expected to total 172,524 units in 2015 and 153,747 next year.
The NAR commercial community includes commercial members; commercial real estate boards; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations — CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and Counselors of Real Estate.
Approximately 70,000 NAR and institute affiliate members specialize in commercial brokerage and related services, and an additional 283,000 members offer commercial real estate services as a secondary business.
The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
1Additional analyses will be posted under Economists' Outlook in the Research blog section of Realtor.org in coming days at: http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/.
The next commercial real estate forecast and quarterly market report will be released on August 25 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
Read more: Modest Growth Expected in Commercial Real Estate Markets
WASHINGTON (May 21, 2015) — Despite properties typically selling faster than at any time since July 2013, existing–home sales slowed in April but remained above an annual sales pace of five million for the second straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions except for the Midwest experienced sales declines in April.
Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single–family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co–ops, declined 3.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million in April from an upwardly revised 5.21 million in March. Despite the monthly decline, sales have increased year–over–year for seven consecutive months and are still 6.1 percent above a year ago.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says sales in April failed to keep pace with the robust gain seen in March. "April's setback is the result of lagging supply relative to demand and the upward pressure it's putting on prices," he said. "However, the overall data and feedback we're hearing from Realtors® continues to point to elevated levels of buying interest compared to a year ago. With low interest rates and job growth, more buyers will be encouraged to enter the market unless prices accelerate even higher in relation to incomes."
Total housing inventory2 at the end of April increased 10.0 percent to 2.21 million existing homes available for sale, but is still 0.9 percent below a year ago (2.23 million). Unsold inventory is at a 5.3–month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.6 months in March.
The median existing–home price3 for all housing types in April was $219,400, which is 8.9 percent above April 2014. This marks the 38th consecutive month of year–over–year price gains and is the largest since January 2014 (10.1 percent).
With demand far exceeding supply, properties sold in April faster (39 days) than at any time since July 2013 (42 days) and the second shortest time (37 days in June 2013) since NAR began tracking in May 2011. Short sales were on the market the longest at a median of 180 days in April, while foreclosures sold in 50 days and non–distressed homes took 38 days. Nearly half (46 percent) of homes sold in April were on the market for less than a month.
"Housing inventory declined from last year and supply in many markets is very tight, which in turn is leading to bidding wars, faster price growth and properties selling at a quicker pace," says Yun. "To put it in perspective, roughly 40 percent of properties sold last month went at or above asking price, the highest since NAR began tracking this monthly data in December 2012."
The percent share of first–time buyers remained at 30 percent in April for the second consecutive month. First–time buyers represented 29 percent of all buyers in April 2014.
According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30–year, conventional, fixed–rate mortgage remained below 4.00 percent for the fifth straight month, falling in April to 3.67 percent from 3.77 percent in March.
NAR President Chris Polychron, executive broker with 1st Choice Realty in Hot Springs, Ark., cautions that closings for some home sales could drag after August 1 and into the fall as lenders transition to the new closing procedures and documentation required by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's Real Estate Settlement and Procedures Act and Truth in Lending Act, or RESPA–TILA, integrated disclosure rule. "There likely will be bumps in the closing process while all parties get used to the new requirements," he said. "We hope that the move away from the HUD–1 is smooth, but even if only 10 percent of transactions experience closing issues, that's as many as 40,000 transactions a month."
Polychron — testifying before Congress on May 14 — advocated for a grace period through the end of 2015, which would delay enforcement of the new rules to the slower winter months.
All–cash sales were 24 percent of transactions in April, unchanged from March and down considerably from a year ago (32 percent). Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 14 percent of homes in April, unchanged from last month and down from 18 percent in April 2014. Seventy–one percent of investors paid cash in April.
Distressed sales4 — foreclosures and short sales — were 10 percent of sales in April, unchanged from March and below the 15 percent share a year ago. Seven percent of April sales were foreclosures and 3 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 20 percent below market value in April (16 percent in March), while short sales were also discounted 14 percent (16 percent in March).
Single–family home sales declined 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in April from 4.60 million in March, but are still 6.5 percent above the 4.16 million pace a year ago. The median existing single–family home price was $221,200 in April, up 10.0 percent from April 2014.
Existing condominium and co–op sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units in April (unchanged from March) and are 3.4 percent higher than April 2014 (590,000 units). The median existing condo price was $206,100 in April, which is 0.4 percent higher than a year ago.
April existing–home sales in the Northeast declined 3.1 percent to an annual rate of 620,000, but are 1.6 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $253,200, which is 3.6 percent higher than April 2014.
In the Midwest, existing–home sales increased 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.22 million in April, and are 13.0 percent above April 2014. The median price in the Midwest was $173,700, up 11.4 percent from a year ago.
Existing–home sales in the South declined 6.8 percent to an annual rate of 2.04 million in April, but are still 3.6 percent above April 2014. The median price in the South was $189,400, up 8.5 percent from a year ago.
Existing–home sales in the West decreased 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.16 million in April, but are still 6.4 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $318,700, which is 10.0 percent above April 2014.
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NOTE: For local information, please contact the local association of Realtors® for data from local multiple listing services. Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting methodology.
1Existing–home sales, which include single–family, townhomes, condominiums and co–ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR rebenchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.
Existing–home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau's series on new single–family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing–home sales, which account for more than 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample — about 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month — and typically are not subject to large prior–month revisions.
The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Single–family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single–family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single–family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.
2Total inventory and month's supply data are available back through 1999, while single–family inventory and month's supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single–family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).
3The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper–end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month–to–month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year–ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.
The national median condo/co–op price often is higher than the median single–family home price because condos are concentrated in higher–cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single–family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR's quarterly metro area price reports.
4Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first–time buyers, all–cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR's Realtors® Confidence Index, posted at Realtor.org.
NOTE: The second quarter Commercial Real Estate Report/Forecast will be released May 26, the Pending Home Sales Index for April will be released May 28, and Existing–Home Sales for May will be released June 22; release times are 10:00 a.m. EDT.
WASHINGTON (May 19, 2015) — The following is a statement by National Association of Realtors® President Chris Polychron in support of the Rural Housing Service and today’s testimony from RHS Administrator Tony Hernandez before the U.S. House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance:
“Today, every Rural Housing Service loan must be approved by RHS staff. In recent years, RHS staffing has been dramatically reduced, and borrowers have experienced significant delays in loan approval.
“Both the Veterans Affairs loan guaranty and the Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance program utilize private lenders for direct endorsement. Providing RHS with the authority to approve direct endorsed lenders would create great efficiencies for the service and homebuyers.
“RHS, in turn, would have additional staff time to focus on a strengthened lender monitoring process and risk management. NAR strongly urges Congress to provide RHS with direct endorsement authority to ease burdens on the agency and accelerate loan processing for borrowers.”
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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Read more: Let Rural Housing Service Provide Direct Endorsement Authority to Lenders, Say Realtors®